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Context.Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale structures of magnetized plasma that erupt from the corona into interplanetary space. The launch of Solar Orbiter (SolO) in 2020 enables in situ measurements of CMEs in the innermost heliosphere, at such distances where CMEs can be observed remotely within the inner field of view of heliospheric imagers (HIs). It thus provides the opportunity for investigations into the correspondence of the CME substructures measured in situ and observed remotely. We studied a CME that started on 2022 March 10 and was measured in situ by SolO at ∼0.44 au.

Aims.Combining remote observations of CMEs from wide-angle imagers and in situ measurements in the innermost heliosphere allows us to compare CME properties derived through both techniques, validate the estimates, and better understand CME evolution, specifically the size and radial expansion, within 0.5 au.

Methods.We compared the evolution of different CME substructures observed in images from the HIs on board the Ahead Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO-A) and the CME signatures measured in situ by SolO. The CME is found to possess a density enhancement at its rear edge in both remote and in situ observations, which validates the use of the signature of density enhancement following the CMEs to accurately identify the CME rear edge. We also estimated and compared the radial size and radial expansion speed of different substructures in both observations.

Results.The evolution of the CME front and rear edges in remote images is consistent with the in situ CME measurements. The radial expansion (i.e., radial size and radial expansion speed) of the whole CME structure consisting of the magnetic ejecta and the sheath is consistent with the in situ estimates obtained at the same time from SolO. However, we do not find such consistencies for the magnetic ejecta region inside the CME because it is difficult to identify the magnetic ejecta edges in the remote images.

 

Context. Solar Orbiter, the new-generation mission dedicated to solar and heliospheric exploration, was successfully launched on February 10, 2020, 04:03 UTC from Cape Canaveral. During its first perihelion passage in June 2020, two successive interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), propagating along the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), impacted the spacecraft. Aims. This paper addresses the investigation of the ICMEs encountered by Solar Orbiter on June 7−8, 2020, from both an observational and a modeling perspective. The aim is to provide a full description of those events, their mutual interaction, and their coupling with the ambient solar wind and the HCS. Methods. Data acquired by the MAG magnetometer, the Energetic Particle Detector suite, and the Radio and Plasma Waves instrument are used to provide information on the ICMEs’ magnetic topology configuration, their magnetic connectivity to the Sun, and insights into the heliospheric plasma environment where they travel, respectively. On the modeling side, the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation model, the 3D COronal Rope Ejection technique, and the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) tool are used to complement Solar Orbiter observations of the ambient solar wind and ICMEs, and to simulate the evolution and interaction of the ejecta in the inner heliosphere, respectively. Results. Both data analysis and numerical simulations indicate that the passage of two distinct, dynamically and magnetically interacting (via magnetic reconnection processes) ICMEs at Solar Orbiter is a possible scenario, supported by the numerous similarities between EUHFORIA time series at Solar Orbiter and Solar Orbiter data. Conclusions. The combination of in situ measurements and numerical simulations (together with remote sensing observations of the corona and inner heliosphere) will significantly lead to a deeper understanding of the physical processes occurring during the CME-CME interaction. 

Long periods of strong southward magnetic fields are known to be the primary cause of intense geomagnetic storms. The majority of such events are caused by the passage over Earth of a magnetic ejecta. Irrespective of the interplanetary cause, fast‐forward shocks often precede such strong southwardB_zperiods. Here we first look at all long periods of strong southward magnetic fields as well as fast‐forward shocks measured by theWindspacecraft in a 22.4‐year span. We find that 76% of strong southwardB_zperiods are preceded within 48 hr by at least a fast‐forward shock, but only about 23% of all shocks are followed within 48 hr by strong southwardB_zperiods. Then, we devise a threshold‐based probabilistic forecasting method based on the shock properties and the pre‐shock near‐Earth solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field characteristics adopting asuperposed epoch analysis‐like approach. Our analysis shows that the solar wind conditions in the 30‐min interval around the arrival of fast‐forward shocks have a significant contribution to the prediction of long‐duration southwardB_zperiods. This probabilistic model may provide on average a 14‐hr warning time for an intense and long‐duration southwardB_zperiod. Evaluating the forecast capability of the model through a statistical and skill score‐based approach reveals that it outperforms a coin‐flipping forecast. By using the information provided by the arrival of a fast‐forward shock at L1, this model represents a marked improvement over similar forecasting methods. We outline a number of future potential improvements.